TIGRAI Online

Ethiopia: The Rise of African Sleeping Giant

By Wuhibegezer Ferede and Dereje T/Mariam
Tigrai Onlne Mekelle, Ethiopia - January 15, 2014

Preface

In most of the studies that focus on the issues of the horn of Africa, the region that embraces the two protagonist riparian states of the Eastern Nile Basin (Ethiopia and Egypt) and their neighbors, we uncover antithetical mix of laden natural resource endowment and horrible crisis.

In many studies, scholars usually underestimate the impact of the former for the intensification of the latter rather they simply identify the area as epicenter of fragile states, pandemic political instability, calamitous economic downturn, chronic poverty, horrific humanitarian crisis and chronic insecurity.

Therefore, these prognostication and conclusions about the root causes of the trajectories sank into a sweeping generalization that attributes them to the primordial and contextual conflicts, inefficient institutions, impermeable cultural values, natural calamities, foreign intervention and lack of skilled human capital capable of turning the threats into opportunities. But, all these explanations failed short of addressing what can exactly be done to break the cycle of the crisis and the question what’s wrong with the region and the contentious debate about the critical forces that trigger these trajectories still remains tenuous albeit multifarious interventions. Moreover, the intervention approaches failed to be fitting models other than highlighting proximate sign posts.

Therefore, the purpose of this book is to unveil the root causes for the economic down turn and tribulations that had been prevailing Ethiopia, one among the core states of horn of Africa, in light of the delicate water politics of the Eastern Nile Basin. Thus, the book addresses how the Egyptian hegemony in the ‘Eastern Nile Basin’ influences the economic metamorphosis, the political development and the diplomatic relation of Ethiopia with its neighbors in the core Horn of Africa (HoA) and as well with Egypt itself.

Historically, the aforementioned issues were fundamentally mingled with and radiated from the water politics of the Nile because the Nile, the dominating physical feature of the region, has always been a pillar of securitization and political instrument of Egypt.  Every single Egyptian ruler that assumed power even in the early BC was associating the longevity of reigns to the assurance of the perennial flow of the Nile.

The book also explains the instruments that enabled the Egyptians to hold a hegemonic position in the appropriation of the Nile. In this regard, it discloses so far uncovered extraordinary issue of how the ritualization and enculturation of water myth and articulation of refined social control mechanisms guised in religious affinity were instrumentalized to justify lean years and as well for weakening the rise of a balancing hegemony in the region. It disclosed how water related myths were produced, refined and invested in Ethiopia to make the Nile the sole gift and sacred husband of ‘sardonic Egypt.’

This venture was further consolidated by soft and hard power projections over the headwater regions and thereby Egypt held a hegemonic position which remained intact for millennia till the onset of Ethiopian renaissance drive. Hence, the book explains the all rounded wrangling held between Egypt and Ethiopia due to the stubborn position of the former for maintaining its position intact.

After comprehensive discussion over these themes, the book focuses on illuminating the adoption of alternative national strategies from imperial to the Derge for quick-fix remedies to the aforementioned predicaments without addressing the simmering cause bedeviled in the Nile water politics and the concomitant counterfeit.

Finally, the book addresses the determination of Ethiopia for the democratization of the  utilization and the benefits of the Nile river on the basis of social equity, economic efficiency and ecological integrity both as sine qua none for the anomalies in  the eastern Nile Basin and as well for the takeoff of its revival by  inaugurating the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam(Meles’s Pyramid) and the optimistic head starts of NBI(Nile Basin  Initiative) in fostering these tenets in spite of  the Egyptian nostalgic love towards the old  creeds of colonialism.

In general, the book assesses the effect of Egyptian realist proto-colonial projection and destabilizing adventurism, the codification of coercive and exclusive Nile water agreements, the enculturation projects, the ritualization of myths, incapacitating interventions and as well the sterilizing mechanisms of agents of the crisis management and coping strategy over the peoples of Ethiopia in connection of its neighbors since the pharoanic times.

Outline Of The Book

The book begins with a description about the physical geography, the demography characteristics and the cultural setting of the region. The second chapter emphasizes on the intellectual imagination and the epistemological foundations of the earliest adventurers, missionaries, geographers, historians to unveil the mysteries of the Nile. Thus, in this portion of the study the hydrography, the physical character and the varying climatic zones it crosses are vividly surveyed.

The third chapter is dedicated for explaining the concept of hydro-hegemony and interstate relationships between Egypt and Ethiopia.  Chapter four focuses on the legalization and institutionalization of the utilization of the Nile River. It narrates about the unfounded legal claims of Egypt on the basis of the colonial relics which are epistemologically non-African in origin.

Chapter five highlights the economic down turn that had been experienced in Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa. In this regard, after explaining the theoretical tents, major emphasis is given how the issue of water is detrimental than any other resource in shaping the economic base and the prospect of development in the region. This portion of the paper explains about the contentious debate on the issue of the under development of the region, and provides a note of optimism about its future. The  hub of the final two chapters is a discussion about  the onset of Ethiopia  renaissance drive,  the  inauguration  of the Grand  Renaissance Dam,  and the  eventual  dilapidation of Egyptian undisputed hegemony over the Eastern Nile  Basin.

Disclaimer

This text represents part of the authors’ study at Mekelle University. The views stated herein are those of the authors and not necessarily of the University. The book is not allowed to be available for circulation outside the University without informed consent from the authors. 

INQUIRY ADDRESS
Wuhibegezer Ferede/Dereje Teklemariam
Mekelle University, Ethiopia
E-mail: gelilaheyab@gmail.com/dere44@yahoo.com

Acknowledgments

Our heartfelt gratitude goes to the determined leaders who dared to reverse the course of the subservient history of Ethiopia over the Nile that predates the BCs. Moreover, we would like to forward our sincerest gratitude to all peoples and institutions that are dreaming & drawing hardly any pessimistic cartoons about the future fate of Ethiopia either on the sheets of their documents or in the unveiled walls of their mind. 

Blessed are those who are burdened with the hard slog of effacing the country’s chronic problems so that Ethiopia could assume a rising position back to its glorious past!!  We owe them heartfelt gratitude.

We are also indebted to our Late Premier Meles, the luminous star who dazzled over every historical burden and set in motion the engine of change that could uplift the country back to its glorious past. We wonder his determination in letting the indicating star in motion towards prosperity through an all-out onslaught on poverty by breaking chain of structural failure that has kept us in bondage of suffering for ages.

Acronyms

BMC: Billion Meter Cube

CIDA: Canada International Development Agent

EOTC: Ethiopian Orthodox Tewahido Church

GDP: Gross Domestic Product

HOA: Horn of Africa

HYDROMET: Hydro Meteorological Survey of the Equatorial Lakes

ILA: International Law Association

MDG: Millennium Development Goal

NILE COME: Nile Council of Ministers

PJTC: Permanent joint Technical Committee

SAP: The Subsidiary Action Program

SVP: The Shared Vision Program

UN: United Nations

 

Contents  Page

Disclaimer

Acknowledgment

Acronyms

Table of Contents.

List of tables and Charts.

Illustrations

Preface

 

Chapter-One

1. INTRODUCTION

1.1. Historical and Conceptual Background

1.1.1. The Geographical Setting and the demographic character of the region

1.1.2. Opportunities and Hurdles of the Region

1.1.2.1. Opportunities

a)            Natural Capital bestows

b)            Social Capital: Melting pot of Cultures

c)            Sanctuary of Africa’s Oldest Civilizations

d)            Geo-political and Strategic Center

1.1.2.2. Historic burdens and Hurdles

1.2. EARLY IMAGINATIONS AND THE SEARCH FOR THE SOURCE/S OF THE NILE

1.2.1. Naming: Why White, Black or Blue

1.2.2. Early Imaginations about Nile River and establishment of Hegemonic Epistemology

1.2.3. The Hurdles of the Explorations and the Prominent Explorers

1.2.3.1.European  Adventures

1.2.3.2. The African Peasants as early Explorers

1.2.3.3. The de-Africanization of the Black Nile

a.            Hellenization and Romanization of the Nile

b.            The Arabization and Islamization   of the Nile

1.2.4. The Geography, Hydrological setting and Sub Basins

1.2.4.1. Hydrography of the Nile

2.4.1.1. Sub Basins: Tributaries and Distributaries

a.            The Abbay / Blue Nile Sub-System

b.            The Tekeze/Atbara Sub-System

c.             The Baro-Akobo/ Sobat Sub-System

 

Chapter-Two

2. THE PRAXIS OF HYDRO-HEGEMONY AND DIPLOMACY

2.1. Conceptualization of Hydro-hegemony

 2.1.2. Diplomacy for equitable utilization of International Rivers

 

CHAPTER-THREE

3. THE TRIADS  IN  THE ETHIO-EGYPTIAN  RELATION: WATER, CROSS AND SWORD

3.1. Review of Ethio-Egyptian Relations

3.2. Faith and Water: The Commingling of Religion and the Nile Politics

3.2.1. Exchange of Bishops for Water

3.2.2. Strategic Shift from Christian fraternity to Political Islam

3.3: Ethiopian Emperors warnings of arresting the Nile

3.4. Faith and Bullets: Military Invasion guised in Civilizing Mission

3.4.1. Early Phase of the Egyptian encroachment of Ethiopia and the Horn

3.4.2. The battle of Gura and Gundet: The annihilation of the Egyptians and Euro-American mercenaries

3.4.3. The tactic of fishing in troubled waters: Destabilization Projects and Proxy wars

 

Chapter-Four

4. REGIME FORMATION AND INSTITUTION BUILDING IN THE EASTERN NILE BASIN

4.1. Theories and Legal doctrines for the utilization of International Rivers

4.2. Historical development and conceptual bases of International Water Law

4.3. Review of Treaties in the Eastern Nile Basin

I-Anglo-Italian Protocol

II-Anglo-Ethiopian Treaty

III-The Tripartite Treaty

IV-The Anglo-Italian Secret Agreement

V-The 1929 Nile Water Agreement

VI-The 1959 Nile Waters Agreement for the Full Utilization and Control

VII-The Ethio-Sudanese Agreement Regarding the Nile

VIII-The Ethio-Egyptian Framework Agreement:

4.4. The Institutionalization Process

4.6. Reviewing the efficacy and the Lacuna of Nile water treaties

 

Chapter-Five

5. ECONOMC DEVELOPMENT APPROACHES IN ETHIOPIA

5.1. Development Approaches: from Japanizers to Developementalism

5.1.1. From Japanizers to Socialist Experiment

5.1.2. Post 1991: Road towards Developmentalism

5.2. An Emerging African Tiger

 

CHAPTER-SIX

6.: POWERING ETHIOPIAN DEVELOPMENT THROGH RENEWABLE ENERGY

6.1 Water- Food - Energy-Nexus:

6.1.1 Water for Food Security

6.1.2. Water as Foot Print of Energy

6.2 Ethiopia-The Tower of Africa’s Clean Energy Resource

6.2.1.The Booming of Renewable Energy in Ethiopia

6.2.2. Solar  and Wind Energy  Resources

6.2.3. Hydro Power Projects

6.2.4. Geothermal Energy Resources

 

Chapter-Seven

7. THE GRAND ETHIOPIAN RENAISSANCE DAM (GERD) AND THE  DYNAMICS IN  THE CONTEMPORARY EASTERN NILE BASIN

7.1. The  Grand Renaissance Dam Project

7.2. Ethio-Egyptian Diplomatic Fallout and Re-engagement

7.2.1. The discourse of Red Line and, Blitzkrieg/Strike from Sadat to Mursi

7.2.2. International Diplomatic Wrestling

7.2.3. Rapprochement and glimmer of hope for inclusive treaty

Conclusion

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