The African Union's Precarious Role in Ethiopia's Fragile Peace Process

BY ADDIS TESFA
Tigrai Online 4/28/2024

Ethiopia's nascent peace process teeters on the brink of renewed conflict. The African Union's (AU) recent pronouncements regarding the implementation of the Pretoria Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (CoHA) have ignited a firestorm of debate. Signed in November 2022 with the fervent hope of ending the brutal Tigrayan War, the CoHA's efficacy hinges on the complete withdrawal of non-federal forces from disputed territories and the unfettered return of Tigrayan lands. This essay dissects the anxieties swirling around the AU's capacity to ensure the agreement's full realization.

The AU's recent statement has inadvertently cast a cloud of doubt on its commitment to impartial stewardship of the peace process. Critics point to a perceived inertia that has spanned almost eighteen months. This deafening silence in the face of alleged violations by the Amharan forces  and external actors raises unsettling questions about the AU's responsiveness. Furthermore, the timing of the AU's call for de-escalation amidst heightened tensions appears disingenuous, fueling suspicions of a potentially compromised position.

Another point of contention is the specter of a bias tilted towards the Ethiopian government. The AU's statement meticulously dissects tensions in specific areas controlled by Amhara forces, while seemingly overlooking broader transgressions of the CoHA. This selective focus undermines the AU's perceived impartiality, raising critical questions about its ability to serve as a neutral arbiter.

The AU's recent statement exhibits a concerning lacuna – a conspicuous absence of any mention regarding Eritrea's and Amhara's continued, unlawful occupation of Tigrayan territories. Even more disconcerting is its silence on Eritrea's ongoing territorial expansion within Tigray, a development that has exacerbated the already dire humanitarian crisis. 

The Eritrean troops and Amhara forces stand accused of occupying western Tigrayan territories and perpetrating egregious human rights abuses, including extrajudicial killings, rampant looting, and weaponized sexual violence. These atrocities have displaced tens of thousands of Tigrayans, further impeding the delivery of life-saving humanitarian aid. The destruction of critical infrastructure and healthcare facilities, coupled with ongoing hostilities and limited access to essential supplies, has condemned millions to a desperate struggle against hunger and disease. A lasting peace can only be achieved by addressing Eritrea's expansionist agenda and securing the complete withdrawal of Eritrean troops – a stipulation enshrined in the CoHA. Additionally, a credible and independent investigation into human rights abuses perpetrated by all parties is paramount to ensuring accountability and deterring future atrocities. The AU's deafening silence on these pressing issues serves only to erode trust and sow discord.

For the fragile peace process to mature into a sustainable reality, the AU's unwavering neutrality is an absolute imperative. This necessitates a demonstrably proactive and balanced approach.

First and foremost, the AU must unequivocally clarify its stance on achieving the CoHA's complete implementation. This entails addressing critical issues like troop withdrawal and the restoration of Tigrayan territorial integrity. All parties must be unequivocally informed of the agreement's provisions and held accountable for adherence.

Secondly, the AU must take a more proactive stance in addressing violations by all parties involved. It is imperative to hold violators accountable, irrespective of affiliation, to demonstrate an unwavering commitment to a fair and just process.

Finally, fostering clear and consistent communication with all stakeholders, including the Tigrayan people, is crucial. Transparency is the bedrock of trust, and an inclusive peace process requires the active participation of all Ethiopians.

While some may cast aspersions on the AU's influence, its continued engagement remains vital. By adopting a more balanced approach, the AU can play a pivotal role in securing lasting peace in Ethiopia. The organization's unwavering commitment to neutrality, proactive enforcement of the CoHA, and transparent communication are essential to fostering trust and achieving a sustainable peace for all Ethiopians. However, its position so far has sufficed none of these.  The path to regaining trust and guiding Ethiopia towards a brighter future remains arduous, but the stakes are undeniably high. The AU's violation of these crucial principles holds the key to locking a more peaceful and prosperous future for all Ethiopians in general and Tigray in particular.

FYI, below the AU statement.

Statement of the Chairperson on the situation in Ethiopia

>The Chairperson of the African Union Commission, H.E. Moussa Faki Mahamat, is following with deep concern the escalating tensions between local communities in the contested areas of northern Ethiopia, including Raya Alamata, Zata and Ofla.

The Chairperson calls on both sides to urgently halt hostilities and ensure the safety of civilians to end the renewed displacement of the local population. He appeals for the respect and full implementation of the Agreement for Lasting Peace Through a Permanent Cessation of Hostilities (COHA), signed between the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia (FDRE) and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) on 2 November 2022, in Pretoria, South Africa.

Furthermore, the Chairperson calls for the commencement of the political dialogue, which is the most viable means to respond to the issues of contested areas, as stipulated in the COHA.