Political Infighting and the Rise of Populism in Tigray; Getachew Reda's Flip-Flopping; and Why Credit Still Goes to the TPLF

By R. DePue
Tigrai Online 9/12/2024

Ethiopia is on a perilous slippery slope. The situation is rapidly deteriorating. The fragile peace that once seemed within reach is now unraveling, with conflicts intensifying across various regions. The humanitarian crisis is deepening, as millions continue to suffer from displacement, hunger, and lack of access to basic services. Political instability is growing, with deepening divisions among political actors and ethnic groups, threatening to plunge the country into further chaos. International efforts to mediate and bring about peace are facing severe challenges. The government’s ability to maintain control and provide security is weakening from day to day, leading to widespread violence, lawlessness, and growing fears of a full-scale collapse. Ethiopia stands at a critical juncture, and without decisive action and genuine commitment to dialogue and reconciliation, the situation is set to deteriorate further, with potentially catastrophic consequences for the entire Horn of Africa. 

The condition in the North is even more dire, particularly in Tigray, which has been ravaged by a devastating genocidal war since November 3, 2020. This genocidal war culminated in the signing of the Pretoria Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (CoHA) on November 2, 2022. While the CoHA succeeded in silencing the guns, its full implementation has been agonizingly slow, leading to new forms of suffering for the people of Tigray. Instead of delivering genuine peace and relief, the delayed execution of the CoHA has perpetuated the suffering of the internally displaced people (IDPs) and refugees.  The absence of active combat has not ended the slow-motion extermination of the Tigrayan people; it has merely shifted the methods of destruction from bullets to bureaucratic inertia, from open aggression to silent, insidious policies of deprivation and neglect. The promised peace remains elusive, and the people of Tigray continue to endure the consequences of unfulfilled commitments, trapped in a cycle of despair that threatens their very existence. 

The scars of the atrocities committed against the people of Tigray are still fresh; the wounds, both physical and psychological, have yet to begin healing. At the same time, the genocidal enemies of Tigray remain relentless, driven by an insatiable thirst to erase Tigray from the map, to crush its spirit, and to sow chaos among its people. 

Yet, amid this existential struggle, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) is consumed by internal strife. Its leaders are tearing at each other, with one group seemingly aiming to dismantle the other. 

Populism on the Rise 

Over the past six years, Mr. Abiy Ahmed has skillfully exploited and manipulated various aspects of populism, including those outlined below, to advance his agenda. Have you observed similar patterns in Tigray? While I am not certain of your perspective, it seems to me that Tigray is grappling with the emergence of comparable populist traits, indicating a troubling shift in the region's political landscape. This trend contrasts sharply with the core values and long-standing traditions of Tigray. Tigrayan society has long been characterized by its emphasis on communal harmony, collective decision-making, and respect for diverse perspectives. These cultural pillars are fundamentally at odds with the populist tendency to oversimplify complex issues, promote divisive rhetoric, and undermine institutions that foster dialogue and cooperation. The rise of populism threatens to erode these cultural values, fostering an environment of polarization and discord that is alien to the considerate and collaborative spirit traditionally upheld by the Tigrayan people.

Populists often criticize and blame various groups, asserting that these groups do not represent the will or interests of the general public. By framing politics as a struggle between "us" (the virtuous people) and "them" (the corrupt group), populists foster a strong sense of division and create a polarized political environment. This approach can deepen societal divisions and reduce opportunities for compromise or dialogue. 

Populists appeal to common sentiments, grievances, and frustrations, simplifying complex social, political, and economic issues into straightforward terms and solutions, blaming a specific group for societal problems. 

Populists advocate for direct democratic measures that bypass established political norms and traditional practices. This rejection of established political norms and practices can result in an unpredictable political environment, leading to frequent changes in government, constitutional crises, or even conflict. Exploiting their popularity, populists may concentrate power, weaken institutions that provide checks and balances, and suppress dissent, potentially leading to authoritarian rule. 

Populists often resort to deception and falsehoods as a means to convince people, employing any tactic necessary to sway public opinion. Their aim is to gain popularity and support through any means. This can involve spreading misinformation, manipulating facts, or exaggerating issues to create a misleading narrative and conspiracy theories that align with their agenda. By distorting the truth and presenting a skewed version of reality, populists aim to generate fear, anger, or enthusiasm among their supporters, effectively undermining informed decision-making and eroding the quality of public trust in credible sources. Their willingness to bend or ignore the truth reveals a deeper disregard for the principles of transparency and accountability, ultimately compromising the integrity of public discourse and democratic processes.

Populists frequently shift their positions to address specific needs or demands that align with their broader motives. This strategic maneuvering allows them to adapt to changing circumstances and capitalize on emerging issues to maintain or boost their appeal. By altering their stances, populists can appear more responsive and attuned to public concerns, thereby reinforcing their image as champions of the people's will. However, this flexibility often comes at the expense of consistency and coherence in policy. The frequent position changes can create confusion and instability, undermining trust in their commitment to any single set of principles or long-term solutions. This opportunistic approach can also lead to a lack of accountability, as populists may shift their rhetoric and policies to suit their immediate political needs, rather than addressing underlying issues with sustained and principled strategies. 

In short, while populism can bring attention to legitimate grievances and democratize political participation, its tendency to oversimplify complex issues, erode democratic norms, and promote division and authoritarianism can pose significant risks to democratic societies.

Let me ask again: Do you see these populist characteristics emerging in Tigray? If you answer "No," you are likely blind to the reality of the current situation. This denial not only obscures the true state of affairs but also impedes efforts to address Tigray's underlying issues. Ignoring these emerging populist behaviors risks further deterioration of the region, potentially leading to increased instability and a continued erosion of democratic principles and societal cohesion. By failing to confront those engaging in populism directly, we are not supporting the individuals we aim to help. Instead, we are allowing them to continue down a dangerous and consequential path. 

Let's turn the page to Getachew Reda's flip-flopping positions

Getachew Reda appears to have suddenly awakened from nearly two years of dormancy. Following the TPLF's 14th Congress, he seems to be in a frantic state, hastily organizing public gatherings in a desperate bid to rally support from the people of Tigray. His speeches are marked by unexpected twists and turns, often featuring reckless statements that show a troubling disregard for the truth. If his efforts to galvanize public support succeed, the credit will likely go to the TPLF. Only after facing critical challenges from within the TPLF has he resorted to these last-ditch efforts to maintain his grip on power. He is now telling the people that their problems will soon be resolved and the CoHA will be implemented shortly. Whether he will follow through on these promises remains to be seen.

Otherwise, until recently,  Getachew Reda remained conspicuously silent on crucial issues, such as the stalling of the Pretoria CoHA, his reluctance to call for an independent investigation into the atrocities committed, and his muted response to the termination of the International Commission of Human Rights Experts on Ethiopia (ICHREE). He has also failed to address the feasibility of domestic transitional justice or engage meaningfully with the Diaspora community. Furthermore, he has remained silent on the dire conditions faced by IDPs and refugees and their return as outlined in the CoHA. He  has neglected to speak out about Tigray's territories that remain under the control of invading Amhara and Eritrean forces, who continue to commit crimes with impunity. 

Instead of addressing Tigray’s pressing issues, Getachew Reda has been focused on blaming and accusing the TPLF, seemingly positioning himself as an external opponent. He has appeared in the media on several occasions to appeal to the general public, attempting to denigrate the TPLF and damage its public image, rather than engaging in collaborative internal discussions within his party to genuinely address the root causes of the crisis and build the capacity needed to effectively guide Tigray through these turbulent times. His approach mirrors the tactics used by Abiy Ahmed, who started his power by fostering and building grievances and animosity towards the TPLF while repeatedly seeking excuses from the people while making empty promises and false hopes.

Getachew Reda's group seems to be exploiting the emotions and grievances of the people, using them as tools to weaken the group that sees itself as a core element of the TPLF. What is currently unfolding in Tigray resembles an election campaign, with T-shirts, banners, and slogans appearing that suggest a division: one group purportedly seeks peace, while the other is accused of desiring war. This divisive narrative is not only misleading but also reckless. The reality is that no group within Tigray desires anything other than peace. Such tactics undermine genuine efforts for reconciliation and stability, further deepening the rift and complicating the path to a peaceful resolution. 

One of the most alarming signs was a slogan displayed in the town of Michew that read, "Shabia's Messengers Out." Seeing such a reckless message in Tigray was both painful and shocking. This slogan mirrors the rhetoric used by Tigray's enemies in other parts of Ethiopia, before and during the genocidal war. It is deeply disheartening to see this kind of divisive rhetoric within Tigray itself. I had expected Getachew Reda to condemn such a myopic, impudent, and reckless display. Yet, to my knowledge, he has not, which implies a tacit endorsement of this unfortunate and divisive behavior.

Getachew Reda is currently exhibiting inconsistent and desperate actions. His inconsistent behavior has become a critical concern. Initially, he vehemently condemned those who sought peace with Eritrea, branding them as traitors to Tigray's cause. Now, he has performed a dramatic about-face, advocating dialogue with the very same enemy he once vilified. This reversal highlights a troubling lack of coherence and raises questions about his commitment to Tigray's strategic and political objectives.

Getachew Reda’s shifting positions extend beyond his stance on Eritrea. He was previously passive regarding the Pretoria Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (CoHA), but has recently begun discussing it consistently, seemingly to attract public attention and support. He and his cliques are now presenting various perspectives to blame the TPLF for failing to implement the CoHA, while remaining silent about the elephant in the room—Abiy Ahmed—who is responsible for calling on enemies to withdraw and returning Tigray's territories to their prewar status to create a conducive environment for IDPs and refugees to return home. 

Getachew and his cliques appear to be struggling to claim credit for all positive outcomes of the CoHA while placing the blame for any drawbacks squarely on the TPLF. When confronted with opposing arguments, they become quick to make reversals. This sudden change of heart appears less as a genuine evolution of thought and more as an opportunistic maneuver to align themselves with prevailing sentiments. Moreover, Getachew remained conspicuously silent when the mandate of the International Commission of Human Rights Experts on Ethiopia (ICHREE) was terminated—a crucial development for accountability and justice in the region. Yet, he is now speaking out, proclaiming that he will not compromise on Tigray’s causes. This newfound assertiveness has left many questioning whether his commitment is genuine or merely another tactical shift to stay politically relevant. 

When Abiy Ahmed first assumed power, his initial strategy was to travel from place to place and region to region, delivering sugar-coated speeches to sensitize, deceive and mobilize people to his cause. He denigrated and blamed EPRDF/TPLF for every wrongdoing in 27 years, and exploited people's grievances and frustrations. It seems that Tigray has not learned from the events in Ethiopia or how the genocidal war in Tigray unfolded. Instead, Getachew appears to be following in Abiy's footsteps, traveling to different parts of Tigray to garner public support by highlighting the TPLF's perceived weaknesses and wrongdoings and offering false hopes and promises that he will work to promptly implement the CoHA. 

Getachew’s approach seems aimed at stirring emotions and provoking irrational actions without careful analysis or understanding of the matters that could have profound consequences for Tigray's future. 

The situation in Tigray needs leaders with clarity, consistency, and the courage to stand firm in their convictions. Getachew's inconsistent maneuvers are not only damaging to his credibility but also threaten to further destabilize Tigray’s struggle for survival. In a time of crisis, the people of Tigray deserve leaders who are unwavering in their dedication to the cause — not those who blow with the political wind.

In summary, switching positions is not a clever or strategic move; rather, it is dangerous. It casts doubt on one's integrity and makes them appear unreliable. In Getachew’s case, his pattern is beginning to resemble that of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who has often been criticized for saying one thing today and doing the opposite tomorrow if it serves his agenda. Abiy has demonstrated a willingness to make 360-degree turns with little regard for consistency or credibility, driven solely by his motives. Alarmingly, Getachew’s recent rhetoric seems to echo that he was once opposed to. He appears to be building a narrative of grievance against the other groups, casting himself as a peace-seeker while portraying others as warmongers. This claim is problematic and should be outrightly rejected; no one is inherently opposed to peace. Peace is a universal aspiration, and framing others as enemies of peace is misleading and divisive. Ultimately, Getachew Reda's inconsistent positions risk further destabilizing the political landscape in Tigray. 

In a time when unity and clear, principled leadership are essential, Getachew’s flip-flopping not

only undermines trust but also creates an environment where genuine dialogue and progress become increasingly difficult. If Tigray is to move forward, it requires leaders who are steadfast in their convictions, not those who change their stance to suit the moment.